Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x065e…dac3 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$80 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$45
politics 39% −$37
other 3% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 39% -8.6%
≤30d 28 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 39% -8.6%
≤90d 28 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 39% -8.6%
all 37 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 35% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 35% -9.8%
10% -21.7% 30% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 22% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage149d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$68 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$78 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jun 20 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 03 $22 +$45 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $489 −$32 -7%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $1,052 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $147 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $172 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $111 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $78 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $200 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $114 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.00 · official $99.00 · 95 history records