Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

06 0x0658…41b5 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$90 (-28%) realized −$96 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-56.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-51.4%	-56.0%	36%	29%	-39.4%
≤30d	14	-51.4%	-56.0%	36%	29%	-39.4%
≤90d	14	-51.4%	-56.0%	36%	29%	-39.4%
all	14	-51.4%	-56.0%	36%	29%	-39.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.0%	29%	-39.4%
10%	-60.2%	14%	-45.2%
15%	-64.1%	0%	-50.5%
20%	-67.6%	0%	-55.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -39% → late -64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized−$96

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage3d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26?	Yes	48¢	56¢	$35	$41	+$6 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$29	+$7	+24%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$100	+$31	+31%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 23	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 23	$2	−$1	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 23	$5	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$4	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$1	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$1	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26?	BUY Yes	48¢	$36	1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	5h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	80¢	$29	6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	6h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$131	8h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$100	9h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$4	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Up	7¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	SELL Down	13¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.26 · official $35.06 · 32 history records