Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0657…3a78 sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,117 (-7%) realized −$13,117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%197W / 151L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1,473est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$7
14 days−$44
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$12,873
world 0% −$15
other 0% −$21
crypto 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 40 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 215 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 43% -10.1%
all 348 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 43% -15.6%
10% -21.8% 27% -23.7%
15% -29.4% 16% -31.1%
20% -36.3% 10% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$249 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses197 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,473
Open positions0
Markets (closed)348 / 348
History coverage165d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 348 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $83 +$16 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $43 −$35 -81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $47 +$53 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $98 +$102 +104%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $377 −$160 -42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $480 −$145 -30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $344 +$32 +9%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +211%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$49 +106%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $636 −$13 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$47 +129%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $280 +$27 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $478 −$30 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $227 +$77 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $162 +$48 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $160 +$17 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $163 +$26 +16%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $156 +$14 +9%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $94 −$67 -72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $192 +$22 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $474 −$150 -32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $141 +$179 +127%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $153 +$11 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $287 +$19 +7%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $114 +$8 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $117 +$8 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $102 +$16 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $88 +$17 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $104 −$14 -13%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $320 −$78 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $142 +$47 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $13 −$4 -36%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $5 +$4 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $3 +$1 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $2 +$1 +27%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $7 −$3 -41%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $9 −$1 -14%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $15 −$5 -35%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $12 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $99 33m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $83 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $200 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $98 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $100 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $93 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 44¢ $88 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $126 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 34¢ $129 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $79 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $7 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $49 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $10 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $86 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2121 history records