Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0657…d0b7 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$77 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$11
economics 23% −$6
sports 20% −$4
crypto 10% −$69
other 8% −$4
culture 5% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 5 -19.9% -27.6% 20% 0% -22.3%
≤90d 12 -7.7% -16.5% 25% 0% -17.1%
all 117 -1.8% -11.1% 34% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 5% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage455d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 82¢ 50¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? No 25¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Serena Williams be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Apr 09 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 20 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Mar 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Feb 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Jan 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Jan 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November? Jan 21 $5 −$2 -46%
Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 01 $33 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 28 $151 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 28 $132 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 08 $1,351 −$1 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $5,279 −$5 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $5,161 −$5 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 08 $5,183 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 06 $26 +$13 +49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 26 $55 −$51 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August? Aug 22 $20 +$35 +179%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 18 $40 −$21 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? BUY No 25¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL No 39¢ $19 17m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 40¢ $20 17m
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 17m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 34m
Will Serena Williams be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $17 34m
Will Serena Williams be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 21d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 43d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 43d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 43d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 43d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 43d
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $5 67d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $8 67d
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $5 67d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $8 67d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 79d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 79d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $199 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $231 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $199 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $231 98d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 64¢ $5 99d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 64¢ $7 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $12.40 (match) · 264 history records