Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0655…475d politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,454 (+4%) realized +$2,511 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%92W / 43L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$49
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$1,847
other 25% +$231
world 14% +$307
tech 4% +$224
crypto 1% −$46
weather 1% +$31
economics 0% +$38
sports 0% −$200
finance 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +11.7% +1.1% 89% 78% -1.7%
≤90d 21 +7.5% -2.8% 86% 71% -7.0%
all 135 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 35% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 35% -5.4%
10% -23.2% 20% -14.4%
15% -30.6% 11% -22.7%
20% -37.4% 8% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$267 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$1,643
Realized+$2,511
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses92 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)135 / 151
History coverage463d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $400 $419 +$19 (+5%)
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+22%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 100¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+92%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 81¢ 4¢ $80 $4 −$76 (-95%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $201 +$17 +8%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 08 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $100 +$41 +41%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 30 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 30 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 30 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 30 $100 +$14 +14%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 01 $30 +$18 +59%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $100 +$33 +33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 31 $200 +$20 +10%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? Mar 31 $200 +$30 +15%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Mar 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? Mar 30 $70 +$20 +28%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 30 $200 +$16 +8%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 30 $100 +$16 +16%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 30 $100 +$41 +41%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Mar 09 $200 +$19 +10%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026? Mar 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $300 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on Februa Feb 28 $100 +$11 +11%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Feb 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 28 $50 +$25 +49%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 28 $60 +$25 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 28? Feb 28 $200 +$20 +10%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"? Feb 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gianni Infantino attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 22 $150 +$10 +6%
Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $2,000 +$594 +30%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec Jan 04 $150 +$15 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Dec 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Dec 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Dec 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Dec 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% o Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? Dec 06 $80 +$17 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 1h
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 21d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY Yes 84¢ $101 21d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 23d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 28d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 74¢ $152 28d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 92¢ $201 28d
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 28d
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $50 28d
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $31 28d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $71 28d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 28d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 80¢ $70 76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $400 76d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 90¢ $100 76d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 87d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 89d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 89d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY Yes 71¢ $50 89d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY Yes 92¢ $200 89d
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $70 99d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 102d
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $100 104d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $200 104d
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli BUY No 2¢ $2 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,642.86 · official $1,642.87 (match) · 301 history records