Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x0654…f5a9 sports 524 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+1%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%292W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$461
14 days−$162
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$82
other 7% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -38.8% -44.6% 36% 36% -36.3%
≤30d 102 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 51% -5.6%
≤90d 363 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 54% -11.1%
all 523 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 55% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 55% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 53% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 49% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 43% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses292 / 231
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)523 / 524
History coverage102d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 51¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $58 +$7 +12%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $36 +$4 +12%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $19 +$26 +140%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $30 +$24 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $15 +$14 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $23 +$24 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $25 +$25 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $63 −$62 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $12 +$13 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $49 +$19 +40%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $26 +$5 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $27 +$21 +76%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $21 +$19 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $22 +$28 +129%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $6 +$1 +17%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +118%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $21 +$9 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$26 +93%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $19 +$9 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$29 +114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $9 +$2 +23%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $34 +$18 +52%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $21 −$21 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $32 +$18 +57%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $26 +$24 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $63 32h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $23 32h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $19 32h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 25¢ $10 32h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 27¢ $11 32h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $25 33h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 32¢ $16 33h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $58 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 33h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $5 33h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 55¢ $30 33h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 2d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 85¢ $26 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $12 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 71¢ $49 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 3d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 40¢ $1 3d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 40¢ $4 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 3d
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 89¢ $27 3d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $6 3d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 40¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 45¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.61 · official $39.61 (match) · 1162 history records