Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x0652…9134
other · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8,940 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,993 · open −$1,561
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23,486
Realized+$5,993
Unrealized−$1,561
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)138 / 153
History coverage111d
Avg bet$2,830
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 15 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,637
7 days+$4,055
14 days+$6,724
30 days+$6,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $4,482 $4,756 +$274 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 24¢ $5,220 $4,320 −$900 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 88¢ $3,818 $4,052 +$234 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 69¢ $2,789 $2,846 +$57 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 56¢ $2,092 $1,998 −$94 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 24¢ $2,317 $1,390 −$927 (-40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 52¢ 44¢ $872 $729 −$144 (-16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 53¢ 51¢ $751 $719 −$32 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 44¢ 42¢ $734 $704 −$31 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $646 $669 +$23 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 74¢ 72¢ $663 $645 −$17 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 31¢ 32¢ $310 $325 +$15 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 61¢ 60¢ $188 $188 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 31¢ $142 $124 −$18 (-13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 33¢ 32¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5) Derby County FC 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Palermo FC vs. Mantova 1911 end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-02-21? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-02-28? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Metaloglobus București win on 2026-02-28? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $9,778 +$1,152 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $579 +$18 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16,275 +$876 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14,477 +$869 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $1,244 +$242 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $117 +$15 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $819 +$82 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $108 +$66 +62%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $231 +$56 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $23,127 +$890 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $254 +$68 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $347 +$127 +36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $300 +$91 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $12,145 +$1,082 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $2,800 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $274 +$23 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $507 +$29 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $29,785 +$3,900 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,167 +$37 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $240 +$15 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 09 $258 +$6 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $252 +$9 +4%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 09 $2,401 +$8 +0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 09 $306 +$17 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3,774 +$230 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4,676 +$343 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $483 −$396 -82%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6,297 −$5,704 -91%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $1,420 −$218 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $1,373 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $5,280 +$120 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $2,250 −$84 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $826 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $120,186 +$2,848 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $28 −$5 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $4,639 +$126 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $5,760 +$180 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 22? May 22 $544 −$112 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18? May 18 $514 −$250 -49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $239 −$61 -26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 14? May 14 $504 −$84 -17%
Will CD Los Chankas vs. Club Universitario de Deportes end in a draw? Mar 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Will AD Tarma vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Mar 08 $604 −$604 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $676 +$190 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% +$5,750
other 2% −$7
sports 1% −$502
finance 1% −$591
politics 0% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $0 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $66 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $0 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $0 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 47¢ $62 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 46¢ $46 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $20 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 47¢ $23 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 47¢ $56 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $30 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1,770 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 47¢ $56 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 52¢ $16 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 77¢ $10 32m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $54 34m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $5 34m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 77¢ $30 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $228 35m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $7 37m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $949 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 85¢ $682 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $82 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 85¢ $64 48m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $19 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $552 51m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 47¢ $14 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1,100 53m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 64¢ $19 57m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 22¢ $165 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $64 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 81% 31% -6.8%
≤30d 45 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 22% -7.4%
≤90d 45 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 22% -7.4%
all 138 -19.4% -27.1% 45% 24% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 24% -7.7%
10% -34.1% 19% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -40.4% 15% -24.6%
20% -46.3% 14% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,485.64 · official $23,522.93 (match) · 2734 history records