Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0650…5327 world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
politics 20% +$2
sports 20% $0
other 14% +$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 14% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 29 +10.0% -0.4% 28% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 82 +1.5% -8.1% 35% 5% -9.4%
all 87 +1.4% -8.3% 34% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)87 / 91
History coverage130d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $92 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $93 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $280 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $204 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $188 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $91 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $204 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $191 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $252 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $92 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $116 +$24 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $129 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $13 −$2 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $94 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $5 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $194 −$22 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $194 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $110 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $94 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $165 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $184 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $92 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $232 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $92 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $38 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $56 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $93 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $93 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $76 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $90 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $103 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $99 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $100 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $100 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $91 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $91 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.77 · official $91.31 · 441 history records