Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x064e…b502 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+13%) realized +$59 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$14
other 47% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.8% -6.0% 73% 55% -2.9%
≤30d 11 +3.8% -6.0% 73% 55% -2.9%
≤90d 11 +3.8% -6.0% 73% 55% -2.9%
all 11 +3.8% -6.0% 73% 55% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 55% -2.9%
10% -15.0% 36% -12.2%
15% -23.2% 36% -20.7%
20% -30.8% 9% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 66¢ 38¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$14 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$26 +102%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$21 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 25¢ $10 21m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 36m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $30 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 35h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 86¢ $35 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $9 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.89 · official $19.89 (match) · 24 history records