Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x064b…9990 other 21 markets active 10d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,162 (+38%) realized +$5,934 · open +$228
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$8,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$214
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$4,441
crypto 9% +$975
sports 9% +$729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -60.1% -63.9% 20% 20% -49.5%
≤90d 13 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 31% +62.5%
all 13 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 31% +62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 31% +62.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 23% +46.9%
15% -21.7% 23% +32.7%
20% -29.4% 23% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
32.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,324 vs −$88 · ×15.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.45 per $1 lost it wins $9.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$8,268
Realized+$5,934
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage78d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,439 $2,414 +$975 (+68%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,310 $2,226 −$84 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,467 $1,630 +$163 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $800 $724 −$76 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $910 $608 −$302 (-33%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $392 −$108 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $206 −$244 (-54%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $68 −$98 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $118 −$115 -97%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $175 +$26 +15%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $120 −$18 -15%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $27 −$26 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $308 +$634 +206%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $330 −$26 -8%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Apr 28 $669 +$551 +82%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,125 −$10 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $2,250 +$139 +6%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1,813 +$5,268 +291%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 26 $210 −$209 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 12¢ $118 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $201 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 39¢ $108 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 10d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Thunder 15¢ $27 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $122 49d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $820 49d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 32¢ $308 50d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $304 50d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,221 55d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) SELL Nuggets 100¢ $1,220 55d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) BUY Nuggets 54¢ $669 55d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $660 55d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 71d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,268.26 · official $8,268.26 (match) · 758 history records