Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x064a…245d crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,552 (-12%) realized −$8,402 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%38W / 174L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day94.5pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$3,441
sports 27% −$8,464
other 13% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -93.3% -93.9% 6% 1% -80.9%
≤30d 176 -79.4% -81.4% 14% 3% -60.8%
≤90d 212 -76.2% -78.5% 18% 5% -52.2%
all 212 -76.2% -78.5% 18% 5% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.5% 5% -52.2%
10% -80.5% 3% -56.8%
15% ← realistic here -82.4% 2% -61.0%
20% -84.1% 1% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -53% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$337 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$8,402
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses38 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 99
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$717
Trades / day94.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $50 −$150 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $920 −$920 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4AM ET Jun 23 $773 −$773 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $643 −$643 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $422 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET Jun 23 $445 −$445 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET Jun 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $1,769 −$1,769 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $478 −$478 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2AM ET Jun 23 $839 −$839 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $746 −$746 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET Jun 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$17 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $112 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $318 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,912 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 3500 history records