Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0649…b249 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-12%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$82
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$141
sports 6% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.4% 29% 29% -40.1%
≤30d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 30% 30% -23.7%
≤90d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 30% 30% -23.7%
all 10 +9.4% -1.0% 30% 30% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 30% -23.7%
10% -10.5% 20% -31.0%
15% -19.1% 20% -37.7%
20% -27.0% 20% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$28 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage21d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$31 -61%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$94 +481%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $56 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 24 history records