Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0646…ad17 sports 442 markets active 7h ago coverage 294d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,509 (+34%) realized +$6,509 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%217W / 225L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$526est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$261
14 days+$2,485
30 days+$1,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$6,378
crypto 5% −$93
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +53.7% +39.1% 64% 45% -24.2%
≤30d 159 -15.6% -23.6% 24% 18% -2.3%
≤90d 229 +13.0% +2.3% 34% 25% +8.4%
all 442 +28.8% +16.5% 49% 41% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 41% +13.2%
10% +5.4% 37% +2.4%
15% -4.8% 31% -7.5%
20% -14.2% 26% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$28 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses217 / 225
Est. fees paid−$526
Open positions0
Markets (closed)442 / 442
History coverage294d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 442 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 19 $20 +$11 +56%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $0 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $12 +$9 +77%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $100 +$755 +755%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $150 +$52 +35%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $145 +$84 +58%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $282 −$282 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 14 $231 −$231 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $482 −$482 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $100 +$174 +174%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $9 +$19 +213%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $73 +$2,467 +3391%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 06 $75 +$25 +33%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $124 −$124 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $14 +$185 +1285%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $80 +$255 +319%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 03 $227 −$204 -90%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $219 +$51 +23%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex Jun 02 $230 −$230 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 02 $16 −$10 -60%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $9 +$14 +152%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $117 −$19 -16%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $150 −$45 -30%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire May 31 $17 −$9 -50%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $114 +$127 +111%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Yorkshire May 29 $58 −$57 -98%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $20 −$3 -14%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $120 +$1 +1%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 28 $120 −$117 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $1 $0 -3%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 28 $141 +$9 +6%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $4 −$2 -64%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $170 +$55 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 9AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 6AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 10AM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 2AM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9AM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland $0 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland $0 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland $3 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 25¢ $2 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 25¢ $10 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 25¢ $15 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 25¢ $5 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland $17 7h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China SELL Nigeria $0 13h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Nigeria $0 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $4 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $0 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $0 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $0 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $17 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $12 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands $1 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands $1 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands $1 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands $3 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 61¢ $43 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 61¢ $110 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 61¢ $18 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 61¢ $72 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $32 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $85 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $15 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $41 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 33¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3099 history records