Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0645…c08e weather 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%260W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$407
14 days−$286
30 days−$1,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% +$130
sports 35% −$69
finance 11% −$31
crypto 7% −$7
other 6% −$108
tech 1% −$12
politics 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -24.3% -31.5% 36% 36% -25.7%
≤30d 744 -55.9% -60.1% 24% 23% -44.8%
≤90d 782 -41.8% -47.3% 28% 27% -28.1%
all 840 -32.1% -38.5% 31% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 29% -10.4%
10% -44.4% 26% -18.9%
15% -49.8% 22% -26.8%
20% -54.7% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses260 / 580
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions17
Markets (closed)840 / 857
History coverage127d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 62¢ 55¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 75¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Under 50¢ 94¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Under 46¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+101%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Under 47¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+97%)
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Washington Mystics 45¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 41¢ 84¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+106%)
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Washington Mystics 46¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 54¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Dallas Wings 47¢ 47¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Chicago Sky 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 70¢ 26¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Chicago Sky 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Los Angeles Sparks 47¢ 28¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Over 54¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Over 51¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Over 49¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +276%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +109%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +109%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$4 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $4 +$4 +119%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $4 +$5 +109%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $7 +$10 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$6 +93%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Sumter: Bella Payne vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Caserta: Gabriela Ce vs Federica Urgesi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Felix Gill vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 1h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $3 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 75¢ $10 4h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $2 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 7h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 46¢ $3 10h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $3 11h
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 43¢ $2 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 12h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY Chicago Sky 47¢ $2 13h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $2 15h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 16h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 16h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 16h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $2 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 28h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $2 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $3 30h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 47¢ $4 31h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 31h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 47¢ $3 31h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 25¢ $1 32h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 33h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 34h
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 66¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.63 · official $85.84 (match) · 2072 history records