Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x0644…01e3
other · 24 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$25 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage78d
Avg bet$638
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 06 $1,569 $0 +0%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jun 06 $1,544 $0 -0%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $12 +$1 +11%
Barra FC leading at halftime? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +5%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns (W) Mar 30 $15 +$1 +9%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 30 $15 +$2 +11%
Jazz vs. Suns Mar 30 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 28? Mar 30 $185 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Mar 28 $1,470 +$2 +0%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Mar 28 $99 −$8 -8%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Mar 28 $1,435 $0 +0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 28 $1,440 +$1 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Mar 28 $1,459 +$5 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Mar 28 $48 +$4 +9%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Mar 28 $1,437 +$5 +0%
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? Mar 28 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? Mar 28 $1,418 +$12 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Mar 28 $1,467 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Mar 28 $24 −$1 -3%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Mar 28 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Mar 28 $1,428 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$16
politics 30% −$3
tech 29% +$6
weather 1% $0
world 1% −$1
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $15 1h
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $14 7d
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $12 22d
Barra FC leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $15 30d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $42 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $47 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 97¢ $268 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 97¢ $556 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 97¢ $648 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $476 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $439 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $555 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $59 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $38 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $67 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $29 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $1,428 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $81 77d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $1,345 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes $1 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes $32 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes $6 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes $29 77d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 97¢ $980 77d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 97¢ $455 77d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1,435 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes $58 77d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes $65 77d
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1,424 77d
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $936 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +4.9% -5.1% 80% 20% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +2.2% -7.6% 57% 9% -9.4%
all 23 +2.2% -7.6% 57% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 9% -9.4%
10% -16.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.80 · official $29.80 (match) · 98 history records