Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0642…8c68 sports 1609 markets active 11h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-2%) realized −$349 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%824W / 772L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$141
14 days−$76
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$572
other 3% −$47
world 2% +$1
politics 1% +$48
finance 0% −$13
culture 0% +$5
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 +11.0% +0.4% 54% 53% -3.2%
≤30d 900 +2.1% -7.6% 51% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 1596 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 51% -12.5%
all 1596 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 51% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -20.9%
15% -27.1% 42% -28.5%
20% -34.3% 35% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses824 / 772
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1596 / 1609
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 81¢ 99¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 99¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+60%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 65¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 75¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 82¢ 16¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 19¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$25 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +17%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $10 +$16 +168%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $6 +$3 +59%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $5 +$9 +186%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $5 +$16 +317%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $11 +$6 +49%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $8 +$9 +105%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 +$6 +122%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $5 +$20 +388%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 +$14 +270%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $4 +$7 +146%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 +$2 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $11 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 42¢ $2 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 42¢ $3 11h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $5 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $5 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 86¢ $7 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $5 13h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 31¢ $5 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 45¢ $5 14h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 76¢ $7 14h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 88¢ $5 15h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 54¢ $5 16h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ $5 16h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 35¢ $5 16h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 39¢ $5 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $5 18h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 20¢ $5 18h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 59¢ $5 18h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $6 18h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 44¢ $5 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $5 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $5 19h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 67¢ $5 19h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 57¢ $5 19h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 35¢ $1 19h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 35¢ $4 19h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 35¢ $1 19h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 30¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.69 · official $94.69 (match) · 3500 history records