Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x0637…1e31
other · 801 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,578 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$254
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses93 / 484
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions262
Markets (closed)577 / 801
History coverage14d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day232.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 262 History 577 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? No 98¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? No 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day? No 62¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 14 $0 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Cont Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Riyad Mahrez record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Lindor lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Set Handicap: Sweeny (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Daniel Brown finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$29
sports 1% −$19
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$6
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 46m
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 55m
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 59m
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Cont SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $1 1h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 86¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? SELL No 98¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 2% -10.3%
≤30d 577 -6.7% -15.6% 16% 3% -13.9%
≤90d 577 -6.7% -15.6% 16% 3% -13.9%
all 577 -6.7% -15.6% 16% 3% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover232.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 3% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 2% -22.1%
15% -31.1% 1% -29.7%
20% -37.8% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.59 · official $203.10 · 3500 history records