trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $27 | $28 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics | Athletics | 71¢ | 42¢ | $19 | $11 | −$8 (-40%) |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $29 | $0 | −$29 (-100%) |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Bengals vs. Ravens | Ravens | 76¢ | 0¢ | $646 | $0 | −$646 (-100%) |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-100%) |
| UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev | Du Plessis | 30¢ | 0¢ | $24 | $0 | −$24 (-100%) |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $17 | $0 | −$17 (-100%) |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | FUT Esports | 43¢ | 0¢ | $33 | $0 | −$33 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Apr 23 | $25 | +$10 | +39% |
| Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers | Apr 23 | $22 | +$18 | +84% |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | Feb 01 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Feb 01 | $81 | +$7 | +8% |
| Chiefs vs. Cowboys | Nov 28 | $2,242 | +$3,658 | +163% |
| Bengals vs. Ravens | Nov 27 | $646 | −$646 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Suns | Nov 07 | $5,301 | +$3,999 | +75% |
| LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) | Oct 15 | $2,844 | +$756 | +27% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Oct 13 | $36 | +$10 | +27% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 11 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Sep 11 | $15 | +$5 | +32% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Sep 01 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev | Aug 17 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 27 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? | Apr 05 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Ripple above $2.70 on February 21? | Mar 05 | $41 | +$11 | +27% |
| Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? | Feb 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Feb 21 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Lakers | Feb 21 | $40 | −$14 | -35% |
| Vikings vs. Rams | Jan 14 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | +61.6% | +46.2% | 100% | 100% | +44.7% |
| all | 20 | -27.7% | -34.6% | 45% | 40% | +50.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.6% | 40% | +50.3% |
| 10% | -40.8% | 40% | +35.9% |
| 15% | -46.5% | 20% | +22.8% |
| 20% | -51.8% | 15% | +10.8% |