Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0630…3fcd other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$159 (-0%) realized −$209 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%77W / 70L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$2,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$91
14 days+$1
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$32
crypto 14% +$9
finance 5% +$3
sports 2% −$348
world 2% +$3
politics 1% $0
economics 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -80.3% -82.1% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 81 -45.9% -51.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 147 -35.0% -41.2% 52% 4% -10.6%
all 147 -35.0% -41.2% 52% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 4% -10.6%
10% -46.8% 4% -19.1%
15% -52.0% 3% -26.9%
20% -56.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,325
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses77 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions44
Markets (closed)147 / 130
History coverage68d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,094 $1,095 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $997 $996 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $18 $39 +$21 (+115%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $2 $19 +$18 (+1061%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+803%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+731%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+551%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+371%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+221%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+203%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+197%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1,020 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $995 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $991 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $293 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,804 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $2,025 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $389 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,602 +$13 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $689 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $638 +$34 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,437 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $890 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,621 +$23 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $997 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,029 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $589 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $405 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $995 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $991 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $86 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $142 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,808 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $293 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,804 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,033 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,025 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $398 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $698 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $760 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,325.33 · official $2,325.33 (match) · 481 history records