Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x062e…e9b0 crypto 1729 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$539 (-1%) realized −$510 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%1318W / 671L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day73.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,277
7 days−$2,277
14 days−$2,352
30 days−$2,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -36.0% -42.1% 36% 36% -29.6%
≤30d 1989 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 66% -13.2%
≤90d 1989 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 66% -13.2%
all 1989 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 66% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 66% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 29% -21.5%
15% -33.1% 9% -29.1%
20% -39.7% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$510
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1318 / 671
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1989 / 1729
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$6 -804%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -2509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$7 -4297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -2863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$7 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -4893%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +4053%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$12 -4400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $23 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.38 · official $1.43 (match) · 3500 history records