Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x062b…c6ea sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$204 (-4%) realized −$73 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%69W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$22
14 days−$177
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$191
other 6% −$111
crypto 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 52% -9.0%
≤30d 130 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 130 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 53% -13.8%
all 130 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 53% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 53% -13.8%
10% -25.8% 52% -22.0%
15% -32.9% 50% -29.5%
20% -39.5% 38% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$34 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses69 / 61
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)130 / 134
History coverage26d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 24¢ $49 $22 −$27 (-55%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 62¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 64¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $50 +$41 +82%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$14 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 −$91 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$41 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$31 +134%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $26 +$16 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 +$97 +139%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$61 +123%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$22 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $173 +$49 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$98 +152%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$22 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$17 +88%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$24 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $89 +$39 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$26 +127%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $105 +$85 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$18 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$11 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $43 −$10 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$24 +78%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $49 58m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $31 58m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $90 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $47 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 69¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 53¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 56¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $46 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 76¢ $55 4h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 66¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $21 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 21h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $91 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $55 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $23 22h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $31 22h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $42 22h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $49 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $20 22h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 71¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.19 · official $22.19 (match) · 262 history records