Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0629…23f2 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$18
sports 13% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -13.7%
≤30d 18 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -13.7%
≤90d 18 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -13.7%
all 18 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 33% -13.7%
10% -28.2% 33% -22.0%
15% -35.2% 28% -29.5%
20% -41.5% 28% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $90 −$5 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$39 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$41 -41%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$8 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $63 +$48 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$27 -67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $116 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $60 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.15 · official $398.15 (match) · 54 history records