Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0628…5afc other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 16% −$8
other 5% −$23
sports 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -4.7% -13.8% 21% 10% -11.1%
all 52 -3.6% -12.8% 21% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 8% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 8% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 8% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage606d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $27 $0 +1%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$6 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +83%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $44 +$1 +2%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $84 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Feb 13 $83 +$1 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 24 $13,530 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 22 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $850 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $72 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $72 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $72 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records