Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0627…f26d other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,222 (+3%) realized +$1,627 · open −$405
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$13,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$1,090
14 days+$447
30 days+$3,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$844
sports 28% +$3,235
politics 15% −$5,999
world 10% +$4,230
crypto 2% +$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.4% -43.4% 33% 33% +11.8%
≤30d 24 -19.9% -27.5% 42% 42% +9.5%
≤90d 26 -7.8% -16.5% 46% 46% +25.7%
all 27 -11.2% -19.6% 44% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 44% -4.2%
10% -27.3% 44% -13.4%
15% -34.3% 44% -21.8%
20% -40.8% 44% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,055 vs −$746 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$13,362
Realized+$1,627
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions14
Markets (closed)27 / 41
History coverage94d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2,995 $3,674 +$679 (+23%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $2,552 $3,035 +$483 (+19%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $2,052 $1,422 −$630 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2,006 $1,224 −$782 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,581 $1,070 −$512 (-32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $839 $966 +$127 (+15%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $500 $712 +$212 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $498 $512 +$14 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $168 $223 +$55 (+33%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $45 −$40 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $293 +$206 +70%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,232 +$1,568 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $92 −$90 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$116 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $491 +$659 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $215 +$185 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $219 +$181 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $565 −$557 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $94 −$93 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $679 −$671 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $235 +$165 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $289 +$421 +146%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,451 −$1,448 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,122 +$1,278 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $874 −$854 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4,986 +$3,650 +73%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1,020 +$1,980 +194%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $2,750 +$2,250 +82%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 21 $5,999 −$5,999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $194 1h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $153 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $293 43h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $509 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $92 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $204 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $153 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $152 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $204 6d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $193 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $491 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $30 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $565 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $215 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $219 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $94 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $107 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $679 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $235 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $289 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $173 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $512 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $862 11d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,624 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,361.90 · official $13,361.90 (match) · 160 history records