trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 4 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 0% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? | Yes | 27¢ | 31¢ | $89 | $100 | +$11 (+13%) |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 18¢ | 26¢ | $20 | $28 | +$8 (+42%) |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $22 | $12 | −$10 (-44%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $3 | −$47 (-94%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 6¢ | $30 | $2 | −$28 (-92%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$1 | -5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | +2% |