Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x061e…8f24 other 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$350 (-13%) realized −$294 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%117W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$37
14 days−$58
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$185
world 28% −$1
sports 17% −$38
other 16% −$99
tech 4% −$53
crypto 3% −$12
culture 1% −$7
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 35% -11.6%
≤30d 90 -19.5% -27.2% 43% 33% -14.2%
≤90d 106 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 34% -13.4%
all 256 -19.1% -26.8% 46% 35% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 35% -20.8%
10% -33.8% 26% -28.4%
15% -40.2% 21% -35.3%
20% -46.1% 14% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses117 / 139
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions22
Markets (closed)256 / 279
History coverage241d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 42¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 73¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+90%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 63¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party win the SC-06 House seat? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-78%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-98%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 96¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +58%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -92%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$13 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$10 -59%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 +$7 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$5 -54%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 +$9 +96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$9 +56%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$6 +108%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$7 -75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 37m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $8 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $10 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 82¢ $10 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 83¢ $10 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $10 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $10 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 12h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.91 · official $118.91 (match) · 765 history records