Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x061a…142b crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$125 (+3%) realized +$128 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 144L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$368
politics 30% +$2
economics 20% −$184
world 5% −$18
other 5% −$11
sports 1% −$20
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -65.4% -68.7% 17% 17% -29.4%
≤30d 7 -70.4% -73.2% 14% 14% -60.9%
≤90d 16 -87.0% -88.3% 6% 6% -82.7%
all 173 -32.6% -39.0% 17% 14% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 14% -6.0%
10% -44.8% 13% -15.0%
15% -50.1% 13% -23.2%
20% -55.0% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$10 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 144
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage232d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $110 −$106 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $150 −$140 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 24? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $25 −$23 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $25 −$23 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$23 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 20? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 17? Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 17? Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 20? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? Feb 24 $25 +$19 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 11? Feb 24 $45 +$11 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? Feb 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 20) Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 11? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $8 +$65 +812%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Feb 09 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 26? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $97 58m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 5h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $59 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? BUY No 10¢ $150 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $25 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $25 72d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $25 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 93d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $30 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? BUY No 3¢ $34 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $2 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 0¢ $2 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 0¢ $3 108d
Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 24? BUY No 2¢ $8 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? BUY No 1¢ $5 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 393 history records