Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x0619…d801 sports 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,048 (+4%) realized +$5,483 · open −$435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%216W / 459L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$8,542
other 26% +$15,186
sports 19% +$2,601
politics 9% −$552
finance 3% −$794
tech 2% −$2,228
crypto 1% +$3,736
economics 1% +$16
culture 0% −$25
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +13.3% +2.5% 43% 41% +5.8%
≤30d 200 +6.0% -4.1% 34% 32% -5.5%
≤90d 479 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 31% -1.2%
all 675 +4.8% -5.2% 32% 30% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 30% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 28% -13.1%
15% -22.5% 26% -21.5%
20% -30.1% 24% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$95 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$5,483
Unrealized−$435
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses216 / 459
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions5
Markets (closed)675 / 680
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$187
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $199 $156 −$43 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $85 $82 −$2 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 40¢ 3¢ $374 $26 −$347 (-93%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $18 $9 −$8 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $42 $8 −$35 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $111 +$68 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $257 −$252 -98%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $333 +$72 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $118 −$20 -17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$165 +474%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $95 −$56 -59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $220 −$108 -49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,755 +$1,877 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $162 −$32 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $630 +$350 +56%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $611 −$441 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $265 −$24 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $474 +$396 +84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $168 −$8 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $205 +$70 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,060 +$171 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$71 +85%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $35 +$45 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 +$85 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,002 +$315 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $331 +$191 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$169 +1280%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $125 +$85 +68%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $276 +$295 +107%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $285 +$139 +49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $142 +$82 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23 +$29 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $44 36m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $79 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $183 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $73 2h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 8¢ $18 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $88 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $16 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $91 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $121 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $284 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $333 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $98 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $108 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $118 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 15¢ $31 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $43 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $174 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $192 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 21h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri SELL No 50¢ $147 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $26 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.32 · official $289.59 · 3500 history records