Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x0618…ec59 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-9%) realized −$19 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 201d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$25
economics 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +42.9% +29.3% 67% 67% -20.3%
≤30d 3 +42.9% +29.3% 67% 67% -20.3%
≤90d 3 +42.9% +29.3% 67% 67% -20.3%
all 4 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 50% -24.7%
10% -12.3% 25% -31.9%
15% -20.8% 25% -38.5%
20% -28.5% 25% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$43 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage201d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $79 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $44 +$8 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$48 +186%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$76 -75%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $21 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $72 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $101 8h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.57 · official $78.30 · 14 history records