Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

06 0x0617…e371 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$24 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day7.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-15.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-6.9%	-15.8%	59%	59%	-7.4%
≤30d	22	-6.9%	-15.8%	59%	59%	-7.4%
≤90d	22	-6.9%	-15.8%	59%	59%	-7.4%
all	22	-6.9%	-15.8%	59%	59%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.8%	59%	-7.4%
10%	-23.8%	50%	-16.3%
15%	-31.2%	36%	-24.4%
20%	-37.9%	27%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 27

History coverage5d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day7.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	32¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	No	18¢	6¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$25	+$6	+26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$40	+$10	+24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$32	+$18	+54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$20	+$2	+11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	+$9	+172%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	+$5	+93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	+$1	+18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$13	+$16	+119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$6	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$25	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	18¢	$10	1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$32	1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	79¢	$25	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$40	11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$50	23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	64¢	$32	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$20	39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	36¢	$5	40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	17¢	$5	40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$5	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$5	2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26	BUY	51¢	$36	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	73¢	$10	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.57 · official $25.57 (match) · 43 history records