Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0615…d288 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$64
weather 26% +$45
sports 19% −$28
world 7% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 36% -12.4%
≤30d 75 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 75 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 36% -12.4%
all 75 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 36% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 13% -20.7%
15% -39.2% 4% -28.4%
20% -45.1% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$23 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $85 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$21 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$3 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $154 +$18 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $88 +$24 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $67 −$23 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $124 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $100 16h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $46 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $87 17h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $59 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $60 31h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $61 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $24 31h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $76 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $99 38h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $23 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $22 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $102 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $19 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $90 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $130 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $112 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $112 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $43 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 89¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.43 · official $99.43 (match) · 521 history records