Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0615…2de3 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 226L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 22% −$22
politics 12% −$7
culture 6% −$8
economics 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$6
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage134d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $668 +$1 +0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $128 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $794 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $641 −$2 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $390 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $370 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $578 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $432 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $536 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $344 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 8h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 16h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 23h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 25h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 29h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 30h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 31h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 38h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 39h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $62 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $62 42h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1395 history records