Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0612…49e4 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-5%) realized −$62 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 48% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 48% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 48% -9.4%
all 33 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 48% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 39% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 39% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 36% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 39¢ 18¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$96 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$51 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$65 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $84 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$51 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $147 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $113 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$40 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$22 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$30 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$60 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $22 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.86 · official $32.37 · 88 history records