trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | Yes | 47¢ | 42¢ | $500 | $445 | −$55 (-11%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 51¢ | 44¢ | $520 | $444 | −$77 (-15%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+47%) |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $114 | $0 | −$114 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? | May 04 | $1 | $0 | +46% |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? | May 01 | $117 | −$114 | -97% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | BUY Yes | 47¢ | $508 | 1h |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? | BUY Yes | 68¢ | $1 | 39d |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? | BUY Yes | 22¢ | $117 | 41d |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | BUY Yes | 51¢ | $531 | 41d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 50% | 50% | -98.8% |
| all | 2 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 50% | 50% | -98.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 50% | -98.8% |
| 10% | -39.8% | 50% | -99.0% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 50% | -99.1% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 0% | -99.1% |