Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x0609…4426 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+4%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate65%39W / 21L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$2
politics 39% $0
crypto 14% +$15
sports 5% +$171
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.1%
all 60 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 7% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 7% -5.6%
10% -15.0% 5% -14.7%
15% -23.2% 3% -22.9%
20% -30.7% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×20.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.46 per $1 lost it wins $38.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses39 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage623d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 26 $18 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $15 $0 +1%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 23 $193 +$172 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 28 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 25 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $9 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $518 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Josh Shapiro be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 20 $385 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 20 $491 $0 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 20 $495 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 12 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 93¢ $20 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $13 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? BUY No 97¢ $17 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 97¢ $15 30d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $14 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 62d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 98¢ $13 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $18 91d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 99¢ $13 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 120d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $18 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 180d
Clippers vs. Hornets BUY Clippers 53¢ $193 216d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $24 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $18 242d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 99¢ $11 272d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 97¢ $30 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 94¢ $39 305d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 98¢ $38 336d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 99¢ $17 395d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $20 395d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $15 429d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 98¢ $20 429d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $8 429d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.72 · official $35.72 (match) · 150 history records