Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x05fd…50c9
other · 289 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8,900 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,374 · open −$538
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$401
Realized−$8,374
Unrealized−$538
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses119 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions8
Markets (closed)280 / 289
History coverage242d
Avg bet$1,287
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 8 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$32
14 days−$27
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 81¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 69¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 92¢ 93¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 65¢ 62¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $490 $4 −$486 (-99%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 58¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 40¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 25¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 10¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ $780 $0 −$780 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2,820 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $6,983 −$9 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,974 +$9 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $95 +$105 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $644 +$7 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2,700 −$90 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,860 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $156 +$36 +23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2,670 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $1,751 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $150 +$7 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2,820 +$3 +0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,186 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3,290 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $6,620 −$28 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $5,790 −$9 -0%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $10,660 −$615 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $386 +$2 +1%
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Mar 30 $234 +$47 +20%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 29 $600 +$210 +35%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $4,939 −$30 -1%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Mar 29 $510 −$10 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $6 +$3 +52%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $540 +$180 +33%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 22 $6,120 $0 -0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5 Mar 22 $3,920 −$80 -2%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 21 $5,850 −$450 -8%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 21 $5,880 −$84 -1%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 21 $4,180 −$220 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Mar 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on December 3? Mar 20 $3 $0 -10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 3? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 25? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on December 3? Mar 20 $186 −$1 -0%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 3? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 24? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uniswap Labs win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$2,988
politics 24% −$717
other 16% −$3,347
world 13% −$37
economics 7% −$1,081
finance 7% −$378
tech 2% −$290
crypto 1% −$77
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 94¢ $2,820 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 94¢ $2,820 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 58¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $101 6h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6,975 6h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,983 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $95 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 29¢ $51 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 96¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 96¢ $301 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 96¢ $132 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 96¢ $129 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 96¢ $81 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 95¢ $644 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $173 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $502 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1,740 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $195 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2,700 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $243 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $277 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $300 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $28 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $74 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $930 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 46% 15% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.5% 44% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 85 -29.4% -36.1% 22% 12% -14.1%
all 280 -5.1% -14.2% 42% 19% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 19% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 14% -20.0%
15% -29.9% 8% -27.8%
20% -36.7% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.27 · official $401.30 (match) · 2486 history records