Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x05fa…7f19 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$249 (+4%) realized +$245 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%45W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$4
sports 31% +$267
crypto 15% −$18
other 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 46 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 0% -10.0%
all 49 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 2% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -6.0%
10% -18.4% 2% -15.0%
15% -26.3% 2% -23.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.1 per $1 lost it wins $11.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses45 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage146d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $3,434 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 10? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 21? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 27? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
LSU Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Feb 02 $353 +$267 +75%
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $1,603 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3,430 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3,434 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $13 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.12 · official $53.12 (match) · 100 history records