Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05fa…c771 other 474 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-4%) realized −$99 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%163W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$188
14 days−$128
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$30
sports 24% +$69
crypto 15% −$144
weather 1% −$13
culture 1% +$7
politics 1% +$3
world 0% −$9
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -41.8% -47.4% 20% 20% -36.9%
≤30d 79 -18.3% -26.1% 27% 27% -28.6%
≤90d 361 -24.8% -31.9% 23% 22% -24.5%
all 471 -5.1% -14.1% 35% 32% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 32% -12.6%
10% -22.3% 28% -21.0%
15% -29.8% 25% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 23% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses163 / 308
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)471 / 474
History coverage131d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +150%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +163%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -43%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$33 -91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -87%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -85%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $20 +$48 +234%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 −$6 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +108%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -43%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $41 +$30 +73%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -80%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$18 +473%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 37h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.38 · official $6.37 (match) · 1069 history records