Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05f7…e5ec other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 30% −$11
sports 15% +$19
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage131d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $276 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $202 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $471 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $410 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $191 $0 +0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $223 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $399 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 34h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 44h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 24d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $225 27d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $225 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 28d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $247 29d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $247 29d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $202 30d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $202 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $255 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $255 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.94 · official $60.94 (match) · 369 history records