Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05f3…2b14 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,407 (-62%) realized −$2,407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$2,293
14 days−$2,293
30 days−$2,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$2,365
other 19% +$107
sports 7% −$74
crypto 3% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +17.3% +6.1% 37% 37% -68.2%
≤30d 27 +17.3% +6.1% 37% 37% -68.2%
≤90d 27 +17.3% +6.1% 37% 37% -68.2%
all 27 +17.3% +6.1% 37% 37% -68.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 37% -68.2%
10% -4.0% 30% -71.3%
15% -13.3% 26% -74.0%
20% -21.8% 22% -76.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$154 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$2,407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 42
History coverage12d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$26 +63%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$24 -80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$36 +711%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ne Jun 20 $46 +$31 +68%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -75%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $24 −$16 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $72 +$188 +262%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -30%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United State Jun 20 $1 +$4 +272%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 Jun 19 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Jun 19 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 19 $27 +$23 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $173 −$2 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $2,725 −$2,343 -86%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $31 −$18 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $67 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $67 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 41¢ $24 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Ecuador 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 13¢ $6 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY 17¢ $8 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $30 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 11¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $76 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ne SELL 46¢ $77 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 42¢ $142 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 BUY 8¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 16¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $20 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $3 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 BUY 2¢ $2 13h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ne BUY 26¢ $46 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? A SELL 28¢ $64 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.32 · official $207.33 · 81 history records