Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x05ed…bf70 weather 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,028 (+3%) realized +$8,037 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%317W / 20L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$692per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,333
7 days+$1,334
14 days+$1,010
30 days+$1,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$318
world 39% +$2,953
politics 14% +$1,765
sports 3% +$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 64 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 2% -6.1%
≤90d 325 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 2% -7.5%
all 337 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 2% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 2% -7.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 0% -24.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$522) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$101 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$11,605
Realized+$8,037
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses317 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)337 / 347
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$692
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $3,960 $4,021 +$60 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $3,390 $3,381 −$10 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $2,291 $2,286 −$5 (-0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $1,805 $1,770 −$35 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 79¢ $141 $121 −$20 (-14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,882 +$177 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $8,230 +$777 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $8,355 +$376 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 05 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 5? Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 05 $329 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 5? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 5? Jun 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 5? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 5? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 05 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 4? Jun 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on June 4? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 4? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on June 4? Jun 05 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 4? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 4? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $832 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $617 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $311 −$311 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on June Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 04 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 104°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 03 $4,898 −$24 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 2? Jun 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $576 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 2? Jun 03 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 2? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on June Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 48m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $606 49m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $593 49m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 55m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $697 55m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 56m
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $535 57m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 57m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 57m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $115 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $66 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $485 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,604.72 · official $11,601.39 (match) · 3500 history records