Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05eb…b6da other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$614 (-23%) realized −$614 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$36
crypto 23% −$608
sports 3% +$50
world 2% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+78.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +97.7% +78.9% 52% 52% -30.7%
≤30d 21 +97.7% +78.9% 52% 52% -30.7%
≤90d 21 +97.7% +78.9% 52% 52% -30.7%
all 21 +97.7% +78.9% 52% 52% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.9% 52% -30.7%
10% +61.8% 48% -37.4%
15% +46.2% 48% -43.4%
20% +31.8% 43% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$135 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$614
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$20 +398%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 −$26 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$9 +45%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $65 −$34 -52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$10 +67%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $651 −$651 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$27 +1494%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $471 +$516 +109%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $669 +$108 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $27 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 33h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 33h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $46 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $18 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.58 · official $1.57 (match) · 61 history records