Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05ea…dacf crypto 220 markets active 17d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-4%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%87W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$124
other 2% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 186 -22.7% -30.0% 37% 22% -15.7%
≤90d 192 -22.2% -29.6% 37% 22% -16.2%
all 220 -14.3% -22.4% 40% 27% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 27% -14.1%
10% -29.8% 19% -22.3%
15% -36.6% 13% -29.8%
20% -42.8% 8% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses87 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)220 / 220
History coverage141d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 220 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$16 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$7 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2396 history records