Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05ea…10fa weather 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%112W / 5L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$9
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 104 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 117 -0.8% -10.3% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.88 per $1 lost it wins $5.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses112 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage125d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? Jun 29 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 Jun 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $204 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 31 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $55 42m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $108 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $225 14h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $223 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $151 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $224 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $223 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $224 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $223 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $113 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $110 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $224 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $223 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $103 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $222 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $222 13d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $202 13d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $74 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $142 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $60 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $204 16d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $72 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.00 · official $229.00 (match) · 241 history records