Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05e7…b527 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-4%) realized −$201 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate96%27W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$269
14 days−$269
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$564
sports 20% +$372
world 3% +$4
crypto 2% +$8
politics 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +24.7% +12.8% 86% 71% -16.5%
≤30d 11 +22.6% +10.9% 91% 73% -14.9%
≤90d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 96% 46% -14.3%
all 28 +15.7% +4.7% 96% 46% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 46% -14.3%
10% -5.3% 29% -22.5%
15% -14.5% 11% -30.0%
20% -22.9% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$928 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses27 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)28 / 37
History coverage68d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $248 $289 +$41 (+17%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Victor Wembanyama be on the cover of NBA 2K27? Yes 97¢ 81¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $186 +$63 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 +$67 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,046 −$928 -89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $852 +$194 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $801 +$46 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $332 +$89 +27%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $173 +$199 +115%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) May 25 $76 +$22 +29%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 25 $61 +$15 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $43 +$7 +15%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $1 $0 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $1 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14 Apr 15 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $249 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $186 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $118 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $118 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,046 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $852 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 6d
Will Victor Wembanyama be on the cover of NBA 2K27? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $115 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $332 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $173 13d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 21d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) BUY Vålerenga Fotball 77¢ $76 26d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Spurs 80¢ $61 27d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 28d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 34d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 36d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $1 37d
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? BUY No 98¢ $50 37d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $1 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 40d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 47d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 86¢ $43 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 96¢ $2 61d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1 64d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $4 66d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.23 · official $534.64 (match) · 70 history records