Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

05 0x05e7…dd6b other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$67 (+26%) realized +$68 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+7.2%	-3.0%	38%	38%	+16.5%
≤30d	21	+7.2%	-3.0%	38%	38%	+16.5%
≤90d	21	+7.2%	-3.0%	38%	38%	+16.5%
all	21	+7.2%	-3.0%	38%	38%	+16.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	38%	+16.5%
10%	-12.3%	29%	+5.3%
15%	-20.8%	29%	-4.8%
20%	-28.5%	19%	-14.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +50% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$1 · ×12.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.54 per $1 lost it wins $7.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$68

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage6d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	64¢	63¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$58	+$23	+40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 20	$8	$0	-6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$20	+41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$12	$0	-3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$22	−$1	-3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 20	$10	−$1	-7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$2	−$1	-68%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$3	−$1	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 20	$1	$0	+20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$15	+291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$2	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 20	$1	$0	-38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$4	+76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$5	$0	-7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$3	$0	-4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$5	−$1	-17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	+$5	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$58	4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL FURIA	41¢	$8	4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	42¢	$8	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$11	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	51¢	$11	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	51¢	$12	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	21¢	$12	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$33	4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	77¢	$21	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	30¢	$9	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	7¢	$1	4d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$2	4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	78¢	$22	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$1	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	5d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	30¢	$3	5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$1	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$12	5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	30¢	$5	5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	57¢	$3	5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	41¢	$4	5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	58¢	$3	5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.34 · official $39.34 (match) · 46 history records