Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05e2…ea88 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,024 (-1%) realized −$7,986 · open +$2,962
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate79%30W / 8L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12,457per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$130,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$138
14 days+$86
30 days+$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2,913
world 27% −$7,642
politics 10% +$3,845
tech 9% +$1,524
crypto 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.9% -13.9% 71% 35% -8.9%
≤30d 22 -6.1% -15.0% 73% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 32 -4.0% -13.1% 78% 25% -8.0%
all 38 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 24% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 24% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 18% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 8% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$11,826) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$1,537 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$130,820
Realized−$7,986
Unrealized+$2,962
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses30 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)38 / 47
History coverage114d
Avg bet$12,457
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $46,189 $51,282 +$5,093 (+11%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $27,821 $29,846 +$2,025 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 72¢ $28,407 $23,566 −$4,842 (-17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $13,105 $13,664 +$559 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $6,619 $6,830 +$211 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 98¢ 95¢ $5,222 $5,093 −$129 (-2%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $330 $361 +$31 (+9%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 61¢ $150 $167 +$16 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 73¢ 60¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $153 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $204 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $24,781 +$51 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $204 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$85 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $61,230 +$1,272 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $26,016 +$1,752 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $22,218 +$782 +4%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $9,840 +$160 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $25,528 +$805 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $11,100 −$2,614 -24%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $8,458 +$361 +4%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $3,477 +$68 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $11,694 +$302 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $13,624 +$253 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $21,013 +$848 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 20 $11,826 −$9,373 -79%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $3,950 +$1,050 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 05 $6,461 +$216 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $11,684 +$449 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $27,230 +$693 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $39,400 +$600 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $9 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $298 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1,371 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $5,911 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5,227 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $24 30h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1,193 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 33h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $267 33h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $331 33h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $5,731 33h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 33h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 33h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 33h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $120 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130,819.77 · official $131,140.22 (match) · 1127 history records