Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05e2…c5c6 sports 303 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$415 (-2%) realized −$413 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%194W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$37
14 days−$565
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$410
other 40% −$862
crypto 6% +$14
politics 2% −$45
world 2% +$5
economics 1% +$6
finance 1% +$9
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 59 -11.1% -19.5% 61% 47% -19.7%
≤90d 123 -9.4% -18.0% 61% 53% -14.9%
all 298 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 55% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 55% -11.4%
10% -23.2% 38% -19.9%
15% -30.7% 21% -27.7%
20% -37.5% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$48 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$413
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses194 / 104
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)298 / 303
History coverage220d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 49¢ 26¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$59 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 +$4 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$20 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 13 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 13 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 10 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $443 −$33 -7%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $51 −$34 -68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $51 +$27 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $201 +$55 +27%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid Jun 05 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 04 $50 +$7 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $41 +$23 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $20 +$6 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 31 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 31 $50 +$4 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $269 +$309 +115%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $405 −$193 -48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 30 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $51 +$25 +50%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $50 −$50 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Will RC Deportivo de la Coruna achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALI May 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 26 $50 +$15 +31%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $41 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $51 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $30 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $302 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $20 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $50 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 84¢ $65 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.