Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05e1…e9ca sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$718 (+43%) realized +$727 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$625
14 days+$706
30 days+$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$44
sports 49% +$745
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.8% +3.0% 50% 50% +95.0%
≤30d 12 +4.3% -5.6% 42% 42% +64.4%
≤90d 12 +4.3% -5.6% 42% 42% +64.4%
all 12 +4.3% -5.6% 42% 42% +64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 42% +64.4%
10% -14.6% 42% +48.7%
15% -22.9% 42% +34.3%
20% -30.4% 42% +21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$32 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$727
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $783 $778 −$5 (-1%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $299 +$517 +173%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 +$158 +83%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $141 −$137 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 +$137 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $54 +$89 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $789 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY Yes $16 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $298 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $192 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $4 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $131 8d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $8 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $69 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $54 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 17d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards BUY Yes 25¢ $13 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.56 · official $799.57 (match) · 26 history records