Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05e1…3efe sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,276 (+7%) realized +$1,286 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$581
14 days−$195
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$505
other 24% +$321
economics 11% −$210
politics 6% +$517
finance 3% +$86
tech 1% −$1
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.2% -43.2% 19% 19% -32.5%
≤30d 32 -11.3% -19.7% 41% 41% -13.1%
≤90d 32 -11.3% -19.7% 41% 41% -13.1%
all 64 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 44% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 44% -2.7%
10% -31.2% 38% -12.0%
15% -37.9% 30% -20.5%
20% -44.0% 25% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$81 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized+$1,286
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage276d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $930 $922 −$7 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $250 +$160 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 −$150 -38%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$71 +276%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $295 −$291 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $204 +$368 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $329 −$18 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $244 −$177 -72%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$206 +197%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$5 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $194 +$104 +54%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $120 +$74 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $102 +$28 +27%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $71 +$31 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $303 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $23 −$23 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $302 +$103 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $204 +$116 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $162 +$42 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $98 +$64 +65%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $207 +$151 +73%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $2,737 +$524 +19%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 17 $36 −$36 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 12 $35 +$65 +186%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 20 $1,878 +$320 +17%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $194 −$194 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $1,743 +$56 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $498 +$86 +17%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $163 +$57 +35%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $583 +$282 +48%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 10 $215 +$55 +26%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $382 +$260 +68%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $401 +$267 +67%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $631 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $309 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 51¢ $411 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $250 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $206 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $401 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 34h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 34h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 34h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $58 4d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $237 4d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $203 4d
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 42¢ $183 4d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 35¢ $204 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 48¢ $154 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 48¢ $143 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 48¢ $4 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 48¢ $9 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $329 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $67 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 34¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.99 · official $1,019.99 (match) · 209 history records